Evidence shows U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increasing, but "intensity" decreasing.

We all know about the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in our atmosphere (see my recent post about EPA policy). But figuring out what to *do* about global warming is even more difficult than identifying causes and predicting effects. It means looking at the problem in the context of what's happening in the world, identifying potential winners and losers, and determining how new regulations will impact real people. The U.S. Energy Information Administration analyzes the evidence to put things in perspective.

EIA tracks the so-called intensity of GHG emissions in the U.S., a comparison of CO₂ releases to Gross Domestic Product. As shown in this chart, Carbon/GDP is steadily decreasing.

A recent EIA report explains that "From 2006 to 2007, the greenhouse gas intensity of the U.S. economy—measured as metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO₂e) emitted per million dollars of gross domestic product (GDP)—fell by 0.6 percent, the smallest annual decrease since 2002.... Since 2002, the base year for the Bush Administration’s emissions intensity reduction goal of 18 percent in a decade, U.S. greenhouse gas intensity has fallen by an average of 2.1 percent per year, resulting in a total reduction of 9.8 percent from 2002 to 2007."

Energy efficiency is improving, but we're still carbon junkies. As shown on EIA's chart, the Carbon/Energy ratio is staying mostly flat — evidence that the "steady decrease in carbon intensity (Carbon/GDP) has resulted mainly from reductions in energy use per unit of GDP (Energy/GDP) rather than increased use of low-carbon fuels...."

Where does this stuff come from? EIA created this nice diagram showing the creation of 2007 U.S. GHG emissions along the entire energy cycle: From original fuel sources (left-hand side of diagram), flowing out to distribution among various end-use sectors (on the right). The center indicates the split between CO2 emissions from direct fuel combustion and electricity conversion. To see the details, go to EIA's report [DOE/EIA-0573(2007), released 3-Dec-2008].

Who will feel the most pain? It's going to be a wild ride, watching EPA and the business community agree on ways to reduce GHG emissions without causing too much short-term damage to the economy.

Emissions still on the rise. To put things in perspective, although we're seeing improvements in intensity, overall U.S. GHG emissions are still increasing, as shown here.

Comments

[Anna Ashmore]

Nice Reading. Thanks.
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