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Tuesday, 20 October 2009

Comments

Patrick

"Vaccination programs typically offer benefits far outweighing their risks"... well, yes, but this doesn't mean that skepticism is unwarranted in particular cases. Sometimes vaccination is a no-brainer* and sometimes it's... well, a no-brainer**. There has been a series of prominent public health scares that have amounted to nothing***, and at some point it's worth wondering whether the effort spent combating these possibly illusory threats is warranted.

Of course, we have a severe problem of evidence here. If the efforts to prevent a health crisis are successful, there will be no crisis; and if the efforts to prevent a health crisis were unnecessary because there was no threat to begin with, there will be no crisis. It's difficult to be certain the threat was real unless the dire scenarios predicted do, in fact, come to pass.

With H1N1 flu, I remain among the skeptics. It's new, but I suspect it is merely our cognitive biases that lead us to confuse novelty with medical significance.

* meaning no particular intelligence is required to come to the conclusion in question.
** meaning an absence of intelligence is in fact an aid in arriving at the conclusion in quesiton.
*** the West Nile virus is the local favorite in southern New Mexico; despite the hype when it arrived, it's been here for a few years and... well, yes, a few elderly residents whose health was already poor have died, but that's about it.

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